A Delphi study is a structured research method for gathering expert opinions and building consensus on a particular topic. It is commonly used in policy development, strategic planning, and evaluation when uncertainty or limited empirical data are present. The method relies on multiple rounds of feedback from a panel of experts, ensuring a well-informed and balanced perspective.
How Does a Delphi Study Work? #
- Selecting experts – A panel of knowledgeable participants is chosen based on their expertise in the subject.
- First round of questions – Experts respond to an initial set of open-ended or structured questions.
- Analyzing responses – The answers are compiled, summarized, and refined into key themes.
- Second and subsequent rounds – Experts review the summarized responses, reconsider their opinions, and provide further input. This iterative process continues until a consensus is reached.
- Final analysis and reporting – The results are analyzed and presented to inform decision-making.
Advantages of a Delphi Study #
- Encourages expert consensus – Delphi study facilitates agreement on complex or emerging issues.
- Anonymity reduces bias – Experts provide independent opinions without being influenced by dominant voices.
- Flexible and adaptable – It can be applied in various fields, from healthcare to business strategy.
Limitations #
However, Delphi studies can be time-consuming, and achieving consensus may not always be possible. The quality of outcomes depends on expert selection and the clarity of questions.
A Delphi study is a valuable tool for gathering expert insights, refining ideas, and making informed decisions, particularly in areas where data is scarce or rapidly evolving.
List of recommended resources #
For a broad overview #
Introduction to the Delphi Method
This video lecture by AMSSM Research Director Stephanie Kliethermes and CRN Leadership Committee Chair Irfan Asif gives an introduction to the forecasting technique called the Delphi method and explains the original or ‘classic’ Delphi in detail.
What Is the Delphi Method, and How Is It Useful in Forecasting?
This article by Alexandra Twin for Investopedia gives an overview of the Delphi forecasting method used to arrive at a group opinion by surveying an expert panel. It explains the various advantages as well disadvantages along with applications of this technique.
For in-depth understanding #
This chapter by Alison Jane Pickard from the book Research Methods in Information gives a comprehensive understanding of the Delphi method, along with its history as well as current usage.
The Delphi Technique in Educational Research
This article by Ravonne A. Green gives the reader/researcher an invaluable resource for learning about the Delphi Technique and for applying this method in educational research projects.
Case study #
This policy research paper by Ståle Navrud and Jon Strand uses a Delphi stated-preference technique in which 48 European environmental valuation experts were asked to provide “best guesses” on the possible outcomes of population surveys in their own countries and Europe as a whole. The findings indicate that Delphi studies might be used more widely as a tool for global benefit transfer.
Fresh Money for Health? The (False?) Promise of ‘Innovative Financing’ for Health in Malawi
This research study employs a systematic approach, particularly the Delphi forecasting method to generate a qualitative assessment of the potential for raising additional tax revenues from existing and new sources.
References #
Delphi Method: Definition, Steps, Pros, Cons, Uses & Examples
