Contribution analysis is a theory-based evaluation method that helps determine whether and how an intervention has contributed to observed outcomes. It does not aim to prove direct cause-and-effect but instead builds a credible case for contribution by examining evidence and ruling out alternative explanations. This approach is particularly useful in complex environments where multiple factors influence change.
Key Steps in Contribution Analysis: #
- Develop a theory of change: Clearly map out how the program is expected to lead to its intended outcomes.
- Gather evidence on outputs and outcomes: Collect data to check if the expected results occurred.
- Assess the contribution story: Analyze whether the intervention plausibly contributed to the outcomes.
- Explore alternative explanations: Identify and evaluate other factors that could have caused the changes.
- Strengthen the contribution story: Refine the theory and evidence based on findings.
- Communicate results clearly: Share findings transparently with stakeholders.
Advantages of Contribution Analysis: #
- Contribution analysis is suitable for complex, real-world settings.
- It focuses on how and why change happened.
- It encourages transparent and evidence-based evaluation.
- It helps improve program design by refining the theory of change.
Disadvantages of Contribution Analysis: #
- Contribution analysis relies heavily on the quality of the theory of change.
- It requires considerable evidence collection and analysis.
- It may not fully satisfy needs for attribution or statistical proof.
Contribution analysis offers a realistic and structured way to understand a program’s influence on outcomes. By focusing on contribution rather than strict causality, it helps evaluators and stakeholders make more informed judgments about program effectiveness.
List of recommended resources #
For a broad overview #
This article by the United Nations Development Programme gives an overview of contribution analysis which is a theory-based method used for examining theory of change. The article outlines its key elements as well as the steps of contribution analysis.
Qualitative approaches: contribution analysis
This post by EU CAP Network briefs about the basis of contribution analysis, its pros and cons, as well as in what context contribution analysis is used.
For in-depth understanding #
This guide by INTRAC provides a deep understanding of the methodology of contribution analysis, how it works, its different levels, its connection to process tracing, along with its strengths and weaknesses.
Contribution analysis: Coming of age?
This article by John Mayne provides a brief history and introduces contribution analysis. Mayne discusses the purpose of contribution analysis along with the role of theories of change as well as the link between causality and contribution analysis.
Case study #
Contribution analysis: A promising method for assessing advocacy’s impact
This study showcases how contribution analysis can effectively assess the impact of advocacy efforts. Through two case examples, the authors illustrate how its structured steps help evaluate the extent to which a campaign contributed to a policy outcome. The paper offers practical tips for advocacy evaluators on building clear, evidence-based contribution stories that can support strategic planning and decision-making within coalitions.
The Use of Contribution Analysis in Evaluating Health Interventions: A Scoping Review
This study conducts a scoping review of contribution analysis in health interventions to examine the extent of such applications and the methodologies, strengths, and limitations of this approach in health programming.
