Climate Change and Its Impact on Rural Livelihoods in India
In today’s day and age, where globalization has outpaced sustainable and climate-inclusive development, rural India stands at a critical crossroads. The dual challenge of fast-paced economic growth and environmental sustainability has led climate change to become a major disruptive force. Come summer or monsoon, the rural heartland bears the full brunt of climate change, where nearly 50% of the population depends directly or indirectly on agriculture and allied activities for sustenance and livelihood.
Since the early 2000s, India has experienced a dangerous rise in climate variability. The average surface temperature has risen by about 0.7°C from 1901 to 2018, and the projections indicate a possible increase of 1.6–2.5°C by mid-century based on current scenarios. The rainfall patterns have become more unpredictable while delayed monsoons complimented by unseasonal rains and dry spells last longer and affect more than 60% of India’s cultivated land which is rainfed.
These changes are not indicative of a dystopian future. They are already happening in real-time and transforming the already harsh realities of rural existence. Small marginal farmers, landless laborers, forest-dependent communities, and rural women—lacking in both institutional backing and financial stability mostly face the worst impacts of a warming world.
This blog explores the specific ways in which climate change is impacting rural livelihoods in India- outlining the nature of these disruptions, identifying the most vulnerable groups, and evaluating strategic adaptation options that can buffer against long-term livelihood erosion.
Climate Change Trends in India
India’s climate patterns have become increasingly unpredictable. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country experienced its hottest decade on record from 2011 to 2020. Simultaneously, the southwest monsoon—which contributes over 70% of annual rainfall—has seen a decline in reliability, with inconsistencies now a recurring phenomenon.
The regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, and Bundelkhand are experiencing chronic droughts, while parts of Assam and Bihar are experiencing recurrent flooding. The dual exposure to water scarcity and excess has resulted in seasonal distress and increased dependence on external coping mechanisms.
The period from 2000 to 2019 saw a significant rise in extreme weather events which led to more than 250 severe weather occurrences including cyclones, flash floods as well as heatwaves, and cold spells across the country. Cyclone Amphan (2020) affected more than 13 million people in India and Bangladesh, resulting in agricultural losses that exceeded $14 billion, demonstrating the extreme volatility that rural communities experience.
Impacts on Rural Livelihoods
Agricultural Productivity
The agricultural sector of India is already known to have a high sensitivity to climate change. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) together with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) predicts that major staples will experience a significant yield decrease by 2030, provided the current climatic patterns prevail. Rainfed areas, which account for nearly half of India’s food grain production, are especially at risk, complemented by a combination of climate-related changes in pest behavior, pollination cycles, and soil moisture patterns—making productivity challenges more severe than it already is.
Economic Vulnerability and Income Stability
Declining productivity directly affects rural incomes. A 2024 report by Down To Earth estimates that the rural poor in India lose up to 5% of their annual income to climate-linked disruptions such as heat stress and flooding. For households operating at or below subsistence levels, this translates into nutritional deficits, debt cycles, and increased reliance on informal credit.
Understanding Gender-Specific Vulnerabilities
The effects of climate change disproportionately affect women in rural India as most of them face barriers to land ownership and credit access, and are usually excluded from decision-making authority at the grassroots level. Under resource-scarce conditions, most women find it difficult to bear the responsibility of ensuring food and water security while already working as part-time laborers on farms. News agency ANI reported through a recent coverage that women in Dindori village of Madhya Pradesh had to climb a nearly empty 30-foot-deep well to retrieve the last available water supply. The situation reveals how environmental stress intensifies pre-existing gender inequalities. Research shows that warmer temperatures lead to more gender-based violence and elevated risks to maternal health, which worsens the many pre-existing vulnerabilities of women in these climate-affected areas.
Mass Migration and Social Dislocation
As agricultural yields dwindle and natural resources degrade, rural households are increasingly resorting to distress migration. Seasonal migration to urban centers is increasing, often under precarious conditions. This has implications not only for urban infrastructures but also for rural economies that suffer from labor shortages and weakened community institutions.
Strategies and Policy Recommendations to Combat Climate Change
Rural India needs adaptive strategies for climate resilience to tackle both system-wide weaknesses and specific community requirements. The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) supports climate-smart practices through crop diversification, agroforestry, precision irrigation, and drought-resistant seed varieties that can be expanded through public-private partnerships and farmer cooperatives to boost productivity and decrease climate risks. Financial inclusion stands as a vital foundation because rural households need expanded access to crop insurance, affordable credit, and microfinance to absorb shocks and make investments in long-term adaptation.
However, schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) remain underutilized due to limited awareness and inefficient claim settlement systems. Strengthening community-based natural resource management is equally essential, with successful examples from states like Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan showing that empowering Gram Panchayats and Self-Help Groups (SHGs) can improve governance of water, forests, and grazing lands. Lastly, gender-inclusive planning must be embedded in all adaptation efforts. This includes actively involving women in climate action planning, improving their access to extension services, and formally recognizing their unpaid care work within rural policy frameworks. The Mahila Kisan Sashaktikaran Pariyojana (MKSP) offers a valuable model in this regard, though it requires greater funding and wider implementation to make a meaningful impact.
From Crisis to Capacity: Building a Climate-Ready Rural India
Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it is a reality for millions in rural India. It endangers the economic foundation of rural life, deepens existing inequalities, and threatens to reverse development gains achieved over decades. However, with timely policy interventions, participatory governance, and robust social safety nets, the rural economy can be reoriented toward resilience and equity.
To achieve this, India must not only invest in climate adaptation but also redesign its rural development paradigm to be more inclusive, anticipatory, and systems-oriented. Climate resilience is not merely an environmental imperative—it is a socio-economic necessity.
Raj Kashyap Das –Knowledge & Insights Coordinator, Sambodhi
